Straws in the Wind Looming over India
May 13 2008 | Views 297 |
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Tags: Inflation price rise Indian economy straws in the wind 30% Haves 70% Have Nots Naxalite Danger
Tags: Inflation price rise Indian economy straws in the wind 30% Haves 70% Have Nots Naxalite Danger
In India, a witch's brew is developing which would give any strategic thinker several moments of pause and give security experts several sleepless nights.
These could be considered straws in the wind. In the virtual maelstr om that is India of today, there are several such straws flying around. However some could be considered vital to confront and control while others just blow away. I will list those that could spell success or failure to India's hopes to stability and growth based entirely on how the powers in India, face,confront and ultimately solve them.
Steep rise in Food Prices and
The general cost of living has also increased sharply in India, leaving seventy percent of the population unprepared to meet these price increases. The wholesale price index increase for all commodities was a measure used in India until recently as an index of general inflation was 217.6 on May 1, 2008 compared to a 1993-94 base of 100. (Office of the Economic Adviser , Government of India)
The sections of society that are most affected by rise in food prices and general cost of living are about 70% of the population as their incomes have not risen in tandem with the globalized sector estimated at 30%.
Straw No 3
Juxtaposed to the increases in prices is the increase in political violence of both the religious and the Marxist kind.
Sporadic religious violence sparked by both India's two Islamic neighbors, Bangladesh and Pakistan, it is hoped,might decrease somewhat because of a budding democracy, emerging in Pakistan. The jury is still out whether it could be a feature, with long term legs. The recent bombings in Jaipur(May 2008) apparently, was religion based, with a Jihadi group within India staking claim to the carnage. Also, violence within India instigated by fundamentalist Hindu, Sikh and Animist(Arunachal Pradesh) add to this virulent brew. All these elements add a certain ingredient of chaos to the political and economic churning going on in India. However, coupled with this real danger of religious terrorism that is endemic in India's body politic, the non religious terror groups are raising their heads, as co-equal attackers of the democracy in India.
--------the Naxalites may be the sleeper threat to India's economic power, potentially more damaging to Indian companies, foreign investors, and the state than pollution, crumbling infrastructure, or political gridlock. Just when India needs to ramp up its industrial machine to lock in growth—and just when foreign companies are joining the party—the Naxalites are clashing with the mining and steel companies essential to India's long-term success. The threat doesn't stop there. The Naxalites may move next on India's cities, where outsourcing, finance, and retailing are thriving. Insurgents who embed themselves in the slums of Mumbai don't have to overrun a call center to cast a pall over the India story. "People in the cities think India is strong and Naxalism will fizzle out," says Bibhu Routray, the top Naxal expert at New Delhi's Institute for Conflict Management. "Yet considering what has happened in Nepal"—where Maoists have just taken over the government—"it could happen here as well. States, capitals, districts could all be taken over."
that we call India. All of us have a stake in the outcome, I means, Desis and non Desis, the world over, because what India has stood for or rather aimed at standing for these last sixty years, is worth preserving and strengthening for the future.
These could be considered straws in the wind. In the virtual maelstr om that is India of today, there are several such straws flying around. However some could be considered vital to confront and control while others just blow away. I will list those that could spell success or failure to India's hopes to stability and growth based entirely on how the powers in India, face,confront and ultimately solve them.
Straws 1 and 2
Steep rise in Food Prices and
Increases in General Cost of Living
The increase in food prices is a global phenomenon and has been commented on by others. However, the hardest hit are the urban poor and landless laborers, in the villages . However, as hard hit is the so called non-globalized middle class. The middle class that is not a part of the global economy but has historically been the teachers, the civil servants , bankers etc. This middle class has been left behind and is losing ground in the new economy. The increased affluence of the globalized sector has resulted in steep rises in the cost of living for all, though the gains in incomes have been not distributed beyond the globalized middle class. The globalized middle class estimated at 30% of the population, and the poor estimated by the Indian Planning Commission in 2005 to be 27.5 %, this group was living at an estimated Rs 20 per day(Wikipedia) and the non globalized middle class, that is the middle class that was not a part of the global economy makes up the balance of 33%.
| . Amy Cassara of Earth Trends reports: |
"Global Food Prices Rise to New Heights
Submitted by Amy Cassara on Thu, 2008-03-13 23:45.
Since early 2007, global food prices have increased by 30%, placing the issue of food price inflation as a top priority for policymakers at the local, national, and international level. The price of cereals such as wheat, rice and corn has risen by 50%, while the cost of dairy products, oils, and fats has increased by an even higher percentage"...............................................
- Agricultural subsidies in developed countries that make more efficient production in developing countries unprofitable;
- Decreases in food stocks;
- Rising fuel prices;
- Increased demand for some products, such as meat, particularly in rapidly emerging markets such as China and India;
- Growth in biofuels production (see figure 2 below); and
- Speculation in agricultural commodity markets.
The general cost of living has also increased sharply in India, leaving seventy percent of the population unprepared to meet these price increases. The wholesale price index increase for all commodities was a measure used in India until recently as an index of general inflation was 217.6 on May 1, 2008 compared to a 1993-94 base of 100. (Office of the Economic Adviser , Government of India)
The sections of society that are most affected by rise in food prices and general cost of living are about 70% of the population as their incomes have not risen in tandem with the globalized sector estimated at 30%.
Straw No 3
Increased Political Violence in the country both of the religious kind and the Marxist Kind
Juxtaposed to the increases in prices is the increase in political violence of both the religious and the Marxist kind.Sporadic religious violence sparked by both India's two Islamic neighbors, Bangladesh and Pakistan, it is hoped,might decrease somewhat because of a budding democracy, emerging in Pakistan. The jury is still out whether it could be a feature, with long term legs. The recent bombings in Jaipur(May 2008) apparently, was religion based, with a Jihadi group within India staking claim to the carnage. Also, violence within India instigated by fundamentalist Hindu, Sikh and Animist(Arunachal Pradesh) add to this virulent brew. All these elements add a certain ingredient of chaos to the political and economic churning going on in India. However, coupled with this real danger of religious terrorism that is endemic in India's body politic, the non religious terror groups are raising their heads, as co-equal attackers of the democracy in India.
Naxalite Marxism
Manjeet Kripalani, the New Delhi Bureau Chief of the US publication,Business Week in an article entitled"In India, Death to Global Business"--------the Naxalites may be the sleeper threat to India's economic power, potentially more damaging to Indian companies, foreign investors, and the state than pollution, crumbling infrastructure, or political gridlock. Just when India needs to ramp up its industrial machine to lock in growth—and just when foreign companies are joining the party—the Naxalites are clashing with the mining and steel companies essential to India's long-term success. The threat doesn't stop there. The Naxalites may move next on India's cities, where outsourcing, finance, and retailing are thriving. Insurgents who embed themselves in the slums of Mumbai don't have to overrun a call center to cast a pall over the India story. "People in the cities think India is strong and Naxalism will fizzle out," says Bibhu Routray, the top Naxal expert at New Delhi's Institute for Conflict Management. "Yet considering what has happened in Nepal"—where Maoists have just taken over the government—"it could happen here as well. States, capitals, districts could all be taken over."
Officials at the highest levels of government are starting to acknowledge the scale of the Naxal problem. In May a special report from the Planning Commission, a government think tank, detailed the extent of the danger and the "collective failure" in social and economic policy that caused it. The report comes five months after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh shocked the country with a candid admission: "The Naxal groups…are targeting all aspects of economic activity…[including] vital infrastructure so as to cripple transport and logistical capabilities and slow down any development. [We] cannot rest in peace until we have eliminated this virus."
Why such rhetoric now about a movement that has coexisted with the rest of India for more than 40 years? One reason is the widening reach of the Naxalites. Today they operate in 30% of India, up from 9% in 2002. Almost 1,400 Indians were killed in Naxal violence in 2007, according to the Asian Center for Human Rights."
This Naxalite danger that is seen in such diverse states as Andhra Pradesh,, Bihar, Chattisgarh,Assam and West Bengal, could spread by exploiting the real miseries of the 70% of the population left behind by the globalization miracle. Seeing the ostentatious and sometimes hedonistic consumption of the globalized middle class, the rich and super rich, which is televised in living color to the masses,is a very live threat. As, it is very easy to depict it as exploitation, of the masses by the privileged 30%, by the Naxalite cadres.
I hope this real danger is recognized by the powers in South Block and counter measures are planned and executed. The countermeasures could be security measures, but the basic thrust should be to spread the benefits from the 30% to the 70%, without killing the goose that is laying the golden eggs.
that we call India. All of us have a stake in the outcome, I means, Desis and non Desis, the world over, because what India has stood for or rather aimed at standing for these last sixty years, is worth preserving and strengthening for the future.
© Girdhar Gopal., all rights reserved.
In case you missed...
Some other recent posts by Girdhar Gopal
- Foreign Policy Magaizine's 2008 Failed State Index and what it means for India's Neighborhood
- Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs: What happens if the Middle Class goes down the curve ? Revolution ?
- Tagging is becoming quite a Chore Thank you very Much Bina !
- My reply to Daily Times Editorial Published today June 21 2008
- Indo Pak Cooperation on Export/Import of Terror ??? Or are We Jumping the Gun ?
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