The July August 2008 issue of Foreign Policy magazine(FP) which came out with a list of failed, fail...
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he July August 2008 issue of Foreign Policy magazine(FP) which came out with a list of failed, failing and increasingly stable states. It ranked 177 states using a fixed set of criteria(see below) It makes very sorry reading, particularly looking at the states that were failing.
The criteria used for ranking states were as follows:
Social Indicators
I-1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
I-2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating
Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
I-3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
I-4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
Economic Indicators
I-5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
I-6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline
Political Indicators
I-7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
I-8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
I-9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread
Violation of Human Rights
I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors
www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php
FP states in its introduction: "Whether it is an unexpected food crisis or a devastating hurricane, the world’s weakest states are the most exposed when crisis strikes. In the fourth annual Failed States Index, FOREIGN POLICY and The Fund for Peace rank the countries where state collapse may be just one disaster away. " It goes on to say"Tens of thousands of Mexicans protested when the price of corn flour jumped 400 percent in early 2007. Thousands of Russian pensioners took to the streets in November to call for a return to price controls on milk and bread. In Egypt, the army was ordered to bake more loaves at military-run bakeries after riots broke out across the country. Kabul, Port-au-Prince, and Jakarta experienced angry protests over spikes in the price of staples."
This appears to be a universal phenomenon, hitting both failed states and also better heeled states. The top 20(or the top 20 worst states) in the list reads like a rogues gallery. The top 5 lists Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad and Iraq. Of these only Iraq, had been a viable(though autocratic) state when Bush decided to make it a failed state. The others have been teetering towards perdition for a long time. The next five includes an unpleasant surprise : Congo,Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Pakistan and Central African Republic.
As an aside, before we come to the surprise, which must be obvious to most, I would like to relate an anecdote about the Central African Republic. The President of the CAR visited my company about forty years ago and I attended a planning meeting in support of a proposal to provide equipment to the tune of $50 million. A top executive sarcastically told us that, the amount of the contract was probably a good chunk of the GNP of the country. That begged the obvious question as to why were we selling this white elephant to the CAR: so advanced countries are sometimes no help but an hinderance to these countries in trouble. However,predatory leaders from within eg, Mugabe,the Burmese junta etc, are probably, much more lethal.
To go back to the surprise at No 9 in the list of failed states stands Pakistan: Jinnah must be turning in his grave.
If Pakistan had not broken away from India, Muslims would have been a stronger minority than they are today and the Pakistani lunatic fringe would not have imposed Shariah Rule into an unified India.
Pakistan is in serious trouble. Their outlying provinces, paricularly, NWFP, Waziristan, Baluchistan and FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Areas) does not have even a semblance of rule of law with the ugly head of the Taliban(with Al Qaeda support ) threatening to take over large swathes of territory,
In an editorial today the Daily Times of Lahore reports:
dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp
PPP(the main ruling party) must wake up to the Taliban threat to carve out a state with the help of Al Qaeda. The rudiments of such a state have already been put together in South Waziristan. The banned Pakistani jihadi organisations linked to Al Qaeda have already activated themselves. Sipah Sahaba, that was first revived mysteriously by the Musharraf establishment in Islamabad in the shape of a mammoth rally in May 2006, has now staged its second show of strength at a Karachi rally this week..................the all-Pakistan alliance of the Shia ulema went on record on Friday saying that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are killing nearly 30 Shias a day in the Kurram Agency. On the other hand, the Sipah Sahaba, mother organisation of Lashkar-e Jhangvi, is being allowed to revive itself in the country. "
The editorial essentially says that despite the democratization of Pakistan,
the leaders are terrified of retaliation from the fundamentalists and are delaying giving instructions to the army to act . The Army is unwilling to act without proper cover from civilian authority. The Pakistani establishment is blaming the US and the Afghan War for Pakistan's problems and consequently are reluctant to act against the terrorists that are rending Pakistan apart, because that to them seems kowtowing to the US and Karzai: The Daily Times concludes "politicians who are afraid to admit the truth and are instead repeating the convenient lie that Pakistan’s gradual descent into anarchy is because of NATO-ISAF forces and President Karzai in Afghanistan"
India's neighborhood is really problematical, as Bangladesh(Joint 12), Burma(Joint 12) Sri Lanka(20) and Nepal(23) round of all India's neighbors. Thus, there is NO state in India's neighborhood that can be classified as a working state other than India, which is ranked 92, a middling successful state. However precisely because of the destablizing influence of its neighborhood, India is in danger of retrogressing. As Foreign Policy opines, Israel's (West Bank) descent down to 58 has been caused by its bad relations with its neighbors and the loss of liberty amongst its Arab citizens. A similar scenario is very possible for India with failed states encircling her. Islamic terrorism from Pakistan and Bangladesh,
Marxists exports from Nepal and Tamil disturbances fro Sri Lanka could be quite disturbing. As Foreign policy states"Bad blood may be at the heart of the neighborhood’s troubles, but its effects can taint progress in even the most successful nations."
It is to India's interests to improve the lot of its neigbors, but the bloody mindedness of India's neighbors might be beyond India's ability to help correct. And as people can choose friends and move away from enemies, countries cannot either choose their neighbors nor move away from them when they export trouble: The expression Vinasha Kale Vipreetha Buddhihi on all sides is an apt concept, under these circumstances.
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My dear Gopal garu,
Very many thanks for enlightening us about the findings of the Foreign Policy Magazine.
Ur remarks about Pakistan are very very true. Pakistan smarting under the defeat of 1971 war started the low cost proxy war with India. It wanted Balkanisation of our country and supported the Khalistan movement. There are many in our country who are misguided and think that the Pakistanis are nice people and by establishing people to people contacts we can improve our relations with it. That is a dream and we will not see improvement in our relations with it. There may be lot of back thumping and hand shaking between the politicians but the terrorism continues unabated. We have seen how Kashmir had been burning for the last six days for a petty cause as underlying this is the hidden hand of ISI which is a law unto itself.
The Huriyat and some other agencies funded by ISI sing a different tune as per their Master's voice.
Recently a small country like Afghanistan declared its right to intrude into the neighbours territory to destroy the terrorists hide outs. We could never do that. It could do that because of the support of USA. Under the present circumstances USA will support India also in destroying the terrorist camps in POK.
Looking back we must accept that we committed many mistakes in our foreign policy. We should have allowed the 1948 ops to continue for few more days and thrown out Pakistan. We should have accepted the American offer to train and arm our troops to check the Chinese. After 1971 war we had the Shimla agreement by which we returned 90,000 POWs. We should have got the chapter of Kashmir closed once and for all. But we allowed bilateral discussions thereby accepting that it is a disputed area. Now we r dithering about the Indo US Nuclear deal which would give us collateral advantage in several technologies and help our strategic position. Bush may be a bungler of the first order but it would be unwise to ignore that today's world is unipolar. The communists want us to fall into the trap of the Chinese. Even the BJP which initiated the deal has not shown political sagacity.
Sorry for rambling on but U brought out such valid points that lets our mind think what could have been and should have been. I vote for this.
With best wishes,
Ramarao.
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RR Garu: Even though our experience with Pakistan has not been good I feel strongly that we must strengthen forces of moderation there. But we must be extremely clear eyed about agreements that should be verifyable and cheating, which Musharraf's Pakistan and all the earlier Pakistan's have been famous for, will not be tolerated. I do not support anything Ronald Reagan stood for except his aphorism vis a vis the Soviet Union" Trust, but verify"(my emphasis). I think Pakistan desperately needs the helping hand of India. As India cannot choose its neighbors, she is stuck with Pakistan. India should set up some strict ground rules for cooperation and put Pakistan's feet to the fire.
I will not put it beyond the present wishy washy government of India to act as a patsy to Pakistan, without getting counter guaranties for good behavior. But if India does it, she does it at her own peril, and I mean peril,
Rgds, Girdhar
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RR Garu: Even though our experience with Pakistan has not been good I feel strongly that we must strengthen forces of moderation there. But we must be extremely clear eyed about agreements that should be verifyable and cheating, which Musharraf's Pakistan and all the earlier Pakistan's have been famous for, will not be tolerated. I do not support anything Ronald Reagan stood for except his aphorism vis a vis the Soviet Union" Trust, but verify"(my emphasis). I think Pakistan desperately needs the helping hand of India. As India cannot choose its neighbors, she is stuck with Pakistan. India should set up some strict ground rules for cooperation and put Pakistan's feet to the fire.
I will not put it beyond the present wishy washy government of India to act as a patsy to Pakistan, without getting counter guaranties for good behavior. But if India does it, she does it at her own peril, and I mean peril,
Rgds, Girdhar
Reply | Report Abuse