The July August 2008 issue of Foreign Policy magazine(FP) which came out with a list of failed, fail...
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he July August 2008 issue of Foreign Policy magazine(FP) which came out with a list of failed, failing and increasingly stable states. It ranked 177 states using a fixed set of criteria(see below) It makes very sorry reading, particularly looking at the states that were failing.
The criteria used for ranking states were as follows:
Social Indicators
I-1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
I-2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating
Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
I-3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
I-4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
Economic Indicators
I-5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
I-6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline
Political Indicators
I-7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
I-8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
I-9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread
Violation of Human Rights
I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors
www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php
FP states in its introduction: "Whether it is an unexpected food crisis or a devastating hurricane, the world’s weakest states are the most exposed when crisis strikes. In the fourth annual Failed States Index, FOREIGN POLICY and The Fund for Peace rank the countries where state collapse may be just one disaster away. " It goes on to say"Tens of thousands of Mexicans protested when the price of corn flour jumped 400 percent in early 2007. Thousands of Russian pensioners took to the streets in November to call for a return to price controls on milk and bread. In Egypt, the army was ordered to bake more loaves at military-run bakeries after riots broke out across the country. Kabul, Port-au-Prince, and Jakarta experienced angry protests over spikes in the price of staples."
This appears to be a universal phenomenon, hitting both failed states and also better heeled states. The top 20(or the top 20 worst states) in the list reads like a rogues gallery. The top 5 lists Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad and Iraq. Of these only Iraq, had been a viable(though autocratic) state when Bush decided to make it a failed state. The others have been teetering towards perdition for a long time. The next five includes an unpleasant surprise : Congo,Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Pakistan and Central African Republic.
As an aside, before we come to the surprise, which must be obvious to most, I would like to relate an anecdote about the Central African Republic. The President of the CAR visited my company about forty years ago and I attended a planning meeting in support of a proposal to provide equipment to the tune of $50 million. A top executive sarcastically told us that, the amount of the contract was probably a good chunk of the GNP of the country. That begged the obvious question as to why were we selling this white elephant to the CAR: so advanced countries are sometimes no help but an hinderance to these countries in trouble. However,predatory leaders from within eg, Mugabe,the Burmese junta etc, are probably, much more lethal.
To go back to the surprise at No 9 in the list of failed states stands Pakistan: Jinnah must be turning in his grave.
If Pakistan had not broken away from India, Muslims would have been a stronger minority than they are today and the Pakistani lunatic fringe would not have imposed Shariah Rule into an unified India.
Pakistan is in serious trouble. Their outlying provinces, paricularly, NWFP, Waziristan, Baluchistan and FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Areas) does not have even a semblance of rule of law with the ugly head of the Taliban(with Al Qaeda support ) threatening to take over large swathes of territory,
In an editorial today the Daily Times of Lahore reports:
dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp
PPP(the main ruling party) must wake up to the Taliban threat to carve out a state with the help of Al Qaeda. The rudiments of such a state have already been put together in South Waziristan. The banned Pakistani jihadi organisations linked to Al Qaeda have already activated themselves. Sipah Sahaba, that was first revived mysteriously by the Musharraf establishment in Islamabad in the shape of a mammoth rally in May 2006, has now staged its second show of strength at a Karachi rally this week..................the all-Pakistan alliance of the Shia ulema went on record on Friday saying that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are killing nearly 30 Shias a day in the Kurram Agency. On the other hand, the Sipah Sahaba, mother organisation of Lashkar-e Jhangvi, is being allowed to revive itself in the country. "
The editorial essentially says that despite the democratization of Pakistan,
the leaders are terrified of retaliation from the fundamentalists and are delaying giving instructions to the army to act . The Army is unwilling to act without proper cover from civilian authority. The Pakistani establishment is blaming the US and the Afghan War for Pakistan's problems and consequently are reluctant to act against the terrorists that are rending Pakistan apart, because that to them seems kowtowing to the US and Karzai: The Daily Times concludes "politicians who are afraid to admit the truth and are instead repeating the convenient lie that Pakistan’s gradual descent into anarchy is because of NATO-ISAF forces and President Karzai in Afghanistan"
India's neighborhood is really problematical, as Bangladesh(Joint 12), Burma(Joint 12) Sri Lanka(20) and Nepal(23) round of all India's neighbors. Thus, there is NO state in India's neighborhood that can be classified as a working state other than India, which is ranked 92, a middling successful state. However precisely because of the destablizing influence of its neighborhood, India is in danger of retrogressing. As Foreign Policy opines, Israel's (West Bank) descent down to 58 has been caused by its bad relations with its neighbors and the loss of liberty amongst its Arab citizens. A similar scenario is very possible for India with failed states encircling her. Islamic terrorism from Pakistan and Bangladesh,
Marxists exports from Nepal and Tamil disturbances fro Sri Lanka could be quite disturbing. As Foreign policy states"Bad blood may be at the heart of the neighborhood’s troubles, but its effects can taint progress in even the most successful nations."
It is to India's interests to improve the lot of its neigbors, but the bloody mindedness of India's neighbors might be beyond India's ability to help correct. And as people can choose friends and move away from enemies, countries cannot either choose their neighbors nor move away from them when they export trouble: The expression Vinasha Kale Vipreetha Buddhihi on all sides is an apt concept, under these circumstances.
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dear giridhar,
This is further to the comments made by giridhar
and sreenivasarao's comments....
my expression here is limited to the type of
social portal we are in.. you are correct
interest in poitical matters would attract only a limited viewership...
but this is true in any portal...
each and every portal is gaining an identity and the peple who belong to the portal
have congrous identity or mobilise only that part which is congruent...
if chetan baghat's book on fictional BPO reality with a totally prehigh school language is a best seller ... there is something wrong with our expectations...
thsi is the reality of this generation...nothing wrong.. i would rather move with the genearation and also not give up the anchors of my geneartion..you are also doing the same thing giridhar..
sreenivasarao is still a represenative of the earlier generation...
dear sreenivasa rao.. you will live for many more years... this amorphous feeling will also pass
i have to meet you and we have to spend a lot of time together....
when are you coming to bangalore ....???
pakistan is defenitely in a very bad state,...
and our neighbpurs are in bad state...
i am sure to love and enjoy the other FP blogs of giridhar...
tehere are very few with such perspectives.. i do not have but i do learn and can appreciate your very imporatant contribution... do not lose heart
srrenivasarao on healths score and
giridhar in viewership score...
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dear giridhar, i apologise for the terrible typos....
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Sampath Your comments are to the point and I accept them. I have been trying to use a societal blog site into something its not. I shall continue to write blogs as the muse takes me, soft or hard as based on what at that point I wish to write. I however wish Sulekha had the two types of blogs that I could visit when as I said above which muse was ascendant. However, they do not and they balance everything to what will be the most popular. But, they are not even balanced on that: I have blogs that are featured where I get two or three hundred views and a few unfeatured blogs that have done in the range of 600-1200 views. So they balance a lot more than popularity.
I shall accept Sulekha henceforward as the type of blog it is and use it for my own purposes. I shall keep a lower profile and only look at other's blogs on the basis of their writing a note to me and blog when I have something to write about.
Rgds, Girdhar
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dear giridhar, i apologise for the terrible typos....
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Sampath Your comments are to the point and I accept them. I have been trying to use a societal blog site into something its not. I shall continue to write blogs as the muse takes me, soft or hard as based on what at that point I wish to write. I however wish Sulekha had the two types of blogs that I could visit when as I said above which muse was ascendant. However, they do not and they balance everything to what will be the most popular. But, they are not even balanced on that: I have blogs that are featured where I get two or three hundred views and a few unfeatured blogs that have done in the range of 600-1200 views. So they balance a lot more than popularity.
I shall accept Sulekha henceforward as the type of blog it is and use it for my own purposes. I shall keep a lower profile and only look at other's blogs on the basis of their writing a note to me and blog when I have something to write about.
Rgds, Girdhar
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