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Foreign Policy Magazine's 2008 Failed State Index and what it means for India's Neighborhood

Jun 28 2008 | Views 492 | Comments (34)

The July August 2008 issue of Foreign Policy magazine(FP) which came out with a list of failed, fail... Expand

The July August 2008 issue of Foreign Policy magazine(FP) which came out with a list of failed, failing and increasingly stable states. It ranked 177 states using a fixed set of criteria(see below) It makes very sorry reading, particularly looking at the states that were failing.

The criteria used for ranking states were as follows:
Social Indicators
I-1. Mounting Demographic Pressures

I-2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating
Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
I-3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia
I-4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

Economic Indicators
I-5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
I-6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline

Political Indicators
I-7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State
I-8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
I-9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread
Violation of Human Rights
I-10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State"
I-11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
I-12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors

www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php

FP states in its introduction: "Whether it is an unexpected food crisis or a devastating hurricane, the world’s weakest states are the most exposed when crisis strikes. In the fourth annual Failed States Index, FOREIGN POLICY and The Fund for Peace rank the countries where state collapse may be just one disaster away. " It goes on to say"Tens of thousands of Mexicans protested when the price of corn flour jumped 400 percent in early 2007. Thousands of Russian pensioners took to the streets in November to call for a return to price controls on milk and bread. In Egypt, the army was ordered to bake more loaves at military-run bakeries after riots broke out across the country. Kabul, Port-au-Prince, and Jakarta experienced angry protests over spikes in the price of staples."

This appears to be a universal phenomenon, hitting both failed states and also better heeled states. The top 20(or the top 20 worst states) in the list reads like a rogues gallery. The top 5 lists Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad and Iraq. Of these only Iraq, had been a viable(though autocratic) state when Bush decided to make it a failed state. The others have been teetering towards perdition for a long time. The next five includes an unpleasant surprise : Congo,Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Pakistan and Central African Republic.

As an aside, before we come to the surprise, which must be obvious to most, I would like to relate an anecdote about the Central African Republic. The President of the CAR visited my company about forty years ago and I attended a planning meeting in support of a proposal to provide equipment to the tune of $50 million. A top executive sarcastically told us that, the amount of the contract was probably a good chunk of the GNP of the country. That begged the obvious question as to why were we selling this white elephant to the CAR: so advanced countries are sometimes no help but an hinderance to these countries in trouble. However,predatory leaders from within eg, Mugabe,the Burmese junta etc, are probably, much more lethal.

To go back to the surprise at No 9 in the list of failed states stands Pakistan: Jinnah must be turning in his grave.

If Pakistan had not broken away from India, Muslims would have been a stronger minority than they are today and the Pakistani lunatic fringe would not have imposed Shariah Rule into an unified India.

Pakistan is in serious trouble. Their outlying provinces, paricularly, NWFP, Waziristan, Baluchistan and FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Areas) does not have even a semblance of rule of law with the ugly head of the Taliban(with Al Qaeda support ) threatening to take over large swathes of territory,

In an editorial today the Daily Times of Lahore reports:
dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp

PPP(the main ruling party) must wake up to the Taliban threat to carve out a state with the help of Al Qaeda. The rudiments of such a state have already been put together in South Waziristan. The banned Pakistani jihadi organisations linked to Al Qaeda have already activated themselves. Sipah Sahaba, that was first revived mysteriously by the Musharraf establishment in Islamabad in the shape of a mammoth rally in May 2006, has now staged its second show of strength at a Karachi rally this week..................the all-Pakistan alliance of the Shia ulema went on record on Friday saying that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are killing nearly 30 Shias a day in the Kurram Agency. On the other hand, the Sipah Sahaba, mother organisation of Lashkar-e Jhangvi, is being allowed to revive itself in the country. "

The editorial essentially says that despite the democratization of Pakistan, the leaders are terrified of retaliation from the fundamentalists and are delaying giving instructions to the army to act . The Army is unwilling to act without proper cover from civilian authority. The Pakistani establishment is blaming the US and the Afghan War for Pakistan's problems and consequently are reluctant to act against the terrorists that are rending Pakistan apart, because that to them seems kowtowing to the US and Karzai: The Daily Times concludes "politicians who are afraid to admit the truth and are instead repeating the convenient lie that Pakistan’s gradual descent into anarchy is because of NATO-ISAF forces and President Karzai in Afghanistan"

India's neighborhood is really problematical, as Bangladesh(Joint 12), Burma(Joint 12) Sri Lanka(20) and Nepal(23) round of all India's neighbors. Thus, there is NO state in India's neighborhood that can be classified as a working state other than India, which is ranked 92, a middling successful state. However precisely because of the destablizing influence of its neighborhood, India is in danger of retrogressing. As Foreign Policy opines, Israel's (West Bank) descent down to 58 has been caused by its bad relations with its neighbors and the loss of liberty amongst its Arab citizens. A similar scenario is very possible for India with failed states encircling her. Islamic terrorism from Pakistan and Bangladesh,
Marxists exports from Nepal and Tamil disturbances fro Sri Lanka could be quite disturbing. As Foreign policy states"Bad blood may be at the heart of the neighborhood’s troubles, but its effects can taint progress in even the most successful nations."

It is to India's interests to improve the lot of its neigbors, but the bloody mindedness of India's neighbors might be beyond India's ability to help correct. And as people can choose friends and move away from enemies, countries cannot either choose their neighbors nor move away from them when they export trouble: The expression Vinasha Kale Vipreetha Buddhihi on all sides is an apt concept, under these circumstances.

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Comments (34)

Girdhar Gopal posted 1 month ago

Two failed states have figured prominently recently vis a vis India. This refers to the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul. Afghanistan, as in the receiving end of Taliban and Al Queda attacks and Pakistan as the exporter and harborer of terrorists, from where the attack came and Afghanistan the place where a lot of mayhem is happening and is becoming a haven of terrorists once again. As I said in my blog, India is stuck with her neighbors.
Rgds, Girdhar

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Girdhar Gopal posted 1 month ago

Sampath Your comments are to the point and I accept them. I have been trying to use a societal blog site into something its not. I shall continue to write blogs as the muse takes me, soft or hard as based on what at that point I wish to write. I however wish Sulekha had the two types of blogs that I could visit when as I said above which muse was ascendant. However, they do not and they balance everything to what will be the most popular. But, they are not even balanced on that: I have blogs that are featured where I get two or three hundred views and a few unfeatured blogs that have done in the range of 600-1200 views. So they balance a lot more than popularity.

I shall accept Sulekha henceforward as the type of blog it is and use it for my own purposes. I shall keep a lower profile and only look at other's blogs on the basis of their writing a note to me and blog when I have something to write about.
Rgds, Girdhar

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DSampath posted 1 month ago

dear giridhar, i apologise for the terrible typos....

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DSampath posted 1 month ago

dear giridhar,
This is further to the comments made by giridhar
and sreenivasarao's comments....
my expression here is limited to the type of
social portal we are in.. you are correct
interest in poitical matters would attract only a limited viewership...
but this is true in any portal...
each and every portal is gaining an identity and the peple who belong to the portal
have congrous identity or mobilise only that part which is congruent...

if chetan baghat's book on fictional BPO reality with a totally prehigh school language is a best seller ... there is something wrong with our expectations...

thsi is the reality of this generation...nothing wrong.. i would rather move with the genearation and also not give up the anchors of my geneartion..you are also doing the same thing giridhar..
sreenivasarao is still a represenative of the earlier generation...

dear sreenivasa rao.. you will live for many more years... this amorphous feeling will also pass
i have to meet you and we have to spend a lot of time together....
when are you coming to bangalore ....???

pakistan is defenitely in a very bad state,...
and our neighbpurs are in bad state...
i am sure to love and enjoy the other FP blogs of giridhar...
tehere are very few with such perspectives.. i do not have but i do learn and can appreciate your very imporatant contribution... do not lose heart
srrenivasarao on healths score and
giridhar in viewership score...

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sreenivasarao s posted 1 month ago

Dear Shri Gopal,

Thank you for the quick response and very sensible one too.

It is a cruel satire that Pakistan should almost be undone by religion, the very premise for its creation. Every birth carries in its womb the seeds of decay and death.

I am glad you are thinking of writing on India’s FP and its relation with its neighbors. I look forward to that.

I can understand and appreciate your take on Sulekha; and of your intention to focus more on worthwhile tasks such as book projects that interest you and on the US Presidential elections. That might be more satisfying and beneficial to all, in the longer run.

Yet, I think your earnest thinking and serious writing already on Suleka is not totally lost. Someday a young person looking for sensible ideas and thoughts on India of a first generation intellectual migrant to US might hopefully stumble across your blogs in Sulekha; and benefit from it. I agree, your intended approach is surely a more direct one. I wish you good luck and Godspeed in your endeavor. (Since I have an amorphous feeling that I am running out of time I tend to take a longer perspective of things. I write for all and not for a few that are now and here. That in a way explains the nature of my posts and comments on Sulekha and elsewhere).

As regards Sulekha, it is rather a social blog-site that feeds on feel-good factor; and caters mainly to Indian interests. It is a heterogeneous but a friendly community that looks for comfort, camaraderie and appreciation. You see, predominantly, short accolades and appreciations – verbal and non verbal- without saying why you found the effort likable. You do not generally come across elaborate or involved debates flying across the pages and carry forward your issue.

I understand there are a few members of Sulekha who post on world or European history, economy, study of languages etc. on other sites; but prefer to post light pieces and articles of Indian interests on Sulekha. In a way, some sort of specialization has already arrived in blogging.

I have a few thoughts on blogging and its future; and might post it separately, since this piece is already getting lengthy.

Please keep talking.

Regards

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Girdhar Gopal posted 1 month ago

Sreenivas: I am concerned to hear about your health. I look forward to hearing that you are back in good fighting health.

Talking about your comments :What a wonderful response to my article: where do I start to reply:

      Yes Pakistan started with a lot of advantages of natural resources. However, they took over a very backward populace. Only a good part of the Muhajirs(Immigrants from India) were well read and administrators, scientists etc. The Muhajirs have never been absorbed completely and the Sindhis and Punjabis have looked them with suspicion. However, Pakistan's greatest drawback was that after the Indian Mutiny, Muslims went into a kind of shell of ignorant and obscurantist navelgazing. They have yet to awake from this long introspection. The Shiah. Cutchi Memons, Agha Khanis , the Ahmediyyas etc who were the advanced sections, have been made into scape goats and outcasts by the Sunni Ummah. I think religion has literally or rather practically killed Pakistan and Bangladesh and only way they can come out of the chaos they are, is if they choose
to become a SECULAR democracy. That does not seem to be in the cards.

     Yes India has a pusillanimous foreign policy of an ever shrinking violet, becasue it does not have much strategic thinking. I think that is because, though there is some consensus in domestic policy there is little consensus in foreign policy. Coalition politics and the criminalization of the political classes has resulted in a kind of stasis in state action. India, as I have stated in my essay, is in for real trouble, when she faces the problems of her neigbors juxtaposed to the paralysis to action that , her increasingly corrupt politics combined with the fracturing of her polity, is leading her to.
         This was not a self congratulatory essay, rather a kind of call to arms to face the realities and ACT.

     I shall think about writing an essay on India's foreign policy, but I am disappointed at Sulekha's response and in fact Sulekhite's response, to my essays. Possibly, a part of what I write does not interest the powers that be in Sulekha and also some people in Sulekha. What I write is really a mixed bag, a lot of serious stuff, interspersed with,poetry,short stories and some funnies. The serious stuff, that about 200 to 250 Sulekhites go for is what interests me, though the others appear to like my light stuff.
I have decided to reduce my load of Sulekha writing in preference to working on a couple of book projects that interest me and also working on the US Presidential elections. I am putting all this in this reply to you so that you and other people will know why I am slacking off in Sulekha. I shall still try to write the essays particularly that on FP of India, a subject which does interest me.
Rgds, Girdhar

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sreenivasarao s posted 1 month ago

Dear Shri Gopal,

Pardon me for the inordinate delay in posting comments on your thought provoking blog. I was not keeping well for sometime and my visits to Sulekha were few and far between. I am now trying to catch up with your posts. But you are so prolific; that makes my task a little more daunting.

Many thought rushed to my mind as I went through your article on FP .I cannot, of course, mention all of them here.

It is interesting you remarked how the Muslims would have gained had they not broken away from the mainland to carve out pieces of theocratic states.Whenever I think of Pakistan I cannot help viewing it as a colossal case of wasted opportunities.

Pakistan came into being with several factors in its favor- I am not suggesting it did not have any problems.

Its advantages included, among others, a great strategic geographical location; a compact region blessed with a river system, fertile soils and access to the sea; a land endowed with rich natural and mineral resources; a single religion binding the country together ; enormous goodwill , specially from other Islamic countries ; generous financial aid from its supporters; and above all the bubbling enthusiasm to face the challenges and build a new nation. The factors in its favor outweighed its disadvantages.

For these reasons, the Western academicians and the journalists wrote warmly and with optimism about Pakistan’s prospects. They predicted a bright future for Pakistan. Considering the then existing situation, it was a fair view.

At the same time, many predicted a dismal prospect for India. For instance:

General Claude Auchinleck, writing in 1948 said:

The Sikhs may try to set up a separate regime... and that will be only a start of a general decentralization and break-up of the idea that India is a country, whereas it is a subcontinent as varied as Europe. The Punjabi is as different from a Madrassi as a Scot is from an Italian. The British tried to consolidate it but achieved nothing permanent. No one can make a nation out of a continent of many nations.

Aldous Huxley, writing in 1961 said:

When Nehru goes, the government will become a military dictatorship—as in so many of the newly independent states, for the army seems to be the only highly organized centre of power.

The London Times, in 1967 wrote:

The great experiment of developing India within a democratic framework has failed. (Indians will soon vote) in the fourth—and surely last—general election.

It is sad; Pakistan finds itself in the present impasse and tottering as a failed state. I say this because well working neighbors are in the interest of India’s comfort and security. But the happenings in Pakistan resemble a badly written script of a horror movie; everything seems to have gone wrong. It is running amok like a crazy elephant gone wild on a binge. I am surprised Pakistan ranks as low as nine on that horrid list.

It is now futile to talk of why or how Pakistan finds itself in the present impasse.What is more important is the will and determination of the people of Pakistan in defining their identity and guiding their destiny.

You also mentioned briefly about India and its neighbors. I wish to see you post a separate blog on India‘s FP or precisely the absence of it. India for its size is a rare case of a major state that virtually has no backyard, except perhaps for the tiny sand dunes of Maldives perched precariously at the mercy of global warming. India virtually no influences of any kind - military or moral -over its neighbors, even the pocket sized ones. It has no say in happenings in Nepal or in the non-happenings in Myanmar. It lost credibility with the southern island of Sri Lanka, geographically resembling a tear drop.. Bangladesh enclosed by India on its three sides is busier than its East London joints and is ever cooking recopies for disasters in India. It has taken on guest chefs too. India has no clue how to protect or influence the land-locked state of Bhutan. Less said the better about India’s relations or lack of it with Pakistan.

The FP of India, if there is any, is weak-kneed and timid; and almost apologetic. Look at the hushed debate on nuclear deal. It is scared even to mention Tibet within the Chinese earshot, let alone plead for the tired and aging Dalai Lama and his beleaguered followers. It is scared even to whisper a good word about the long interned Aung San Suchi .It is particularly sad because most of the founding fathers of the Indian republic spent the best years of their lives closeted in British prisons. India seems to have developed a selective amnesia.

As you pointed out there is a lot of unrest and a host ofdestabilizing influences each brewing trouble for its neighbors. Sadly, India seems to have become a part of the problem rather than holding out solutions.

You rightly said countries cannot choose their neighbors. Yes, looking at it from a distance, the Indian subcontinent seems to be a bunch of scared and confused polity joined by geography but divided by history.

Even at the global level , India no longer holds positions on committees or groups that mediate on disputes between contesting nations ( as during the middle decades of 20^th century).It seems to have lost the leverage or the sane tone of influence it once had.

I wonder how India given its vast size, huge manpower, considerable economic strength, its standing among the group of nations ; and with predictions for growth and glory, painted itself into a corner.

I love to read your article on India’s FP and its relation with its neighbors. What does the destiny hold for these states? What do you see through your crystal ball? I would love to hear some good predictions for India.

Pardon me for the delayed and a rather lengthy response.

Regards

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Girdhar Gopal posted 2 mnths ago

Avinash: If that is so, not only they but India and the whole world, but India especially, is in deep doodo.
Rgds, Girdhar

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Avinashjee posted 2 mnths ago

Girdhar,
Pakistan will not be able to pull itself out of morass. They are completely blinded by religion. It is their turn to either be subjugated by taliban or become taliban or both.
Regards
Avinash

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Girdhar Gopal posted 2 mnths ago

Ether: In one way you are right on target and in another you are also into mix metaphors !
Rgds, Girdhar

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