Abraham Maslow a great thinker, wrote about how societies and nations progress up the hiearchy of needs, in his 1943 seminal paper on the psychology of needs entitled Theory of Human Motivation. Wikipedia presents a graphical presentation of the hierarchy of Needs.
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This diagram shows Maslow's hierarchy of needs, represented as a pyramid with the more primitive needs at the bottom.
Maslow's hierarchy of needs is often depicted as a pyramid consisting of five levels: the four lower levels are grouped together as being associated with Physiological needs, while the top level is termed growth needs associated with psychological needs. Deficiency needs must be met first. Once these are met, seeking to satisfy growth needs drives personal growth. The higher needs in this hierarchy only come into focus when the lower needs in the pyramid are satisfied. Once an individual has moved upwards to the next level, needs in the lower level will no longer be prioritized. If a lower set of needs is no longer being met, the individual will temporarily re-prioritize those needs by focusing attention on the unfulfilled needs, but will not permanently regress to the lower level . For instance, a businessman at the esteem level who is diagnosed with cancer will spend a great deal of time concentrating on his health (physiological needs), but will continue to value his work performance (esteem needs) and will likely return to work during periods of remission."
I gave the basic philosophy first so that you will understand the subsequent points that I make. As stated above the pyramid is narrow at the top as physiological needs are greater in number than psychological needs. Though the point made in the write up states that the only element that caters to psychological needs is the fifth need of self actualization, the psychological content increases at every stage up the hierarchy. Thus historically a large proportion of the middle class in the United States have moved up the hierarchy with most straddling between esteem and self actualization. This is because as a society gets richer and the people move up the economic scale, they also move up the hierarchy of needs curve.
Now America is faced with the prospect of not going up the needs curve but going down as prices rise and incomes remain stationary or go down for the middle classes. Maslow considers this movement down the curve, temporary, but in the case of many in America this shift from middle class status, with the ballooning prices of food and of gas in the last few years with practically stationary real incomes(for the middle class) during the Bush years, this movement down seems to have some permanancy, unless something drastic is done. People accept the phenomenon of rising needs, with rising prosperity. But, falling prosperity with a huge increase in prices, can have a real destabilizing effect on the psyche of a population.
In the last eight years, the Bush years, real incomes of the middle class have fallen. The oil shocks and food price rises of 2007-2008 have grossly exacerbated an already difficult situation. With the current oil shocks travel, even travel to and from one's place of work has become onerous: Please see my blog:
The Tipping Point on Oil is Here and Now
girdhargopal.sulekha.com/blog/post/2008/06/the-tipping-point-on-oil-is-here-and-now.htm
These recent shocks juxtaposed to stationary if not falling incomes and real increases in large ticket expenditures as gas for cars and food on the table, have made people move DOWN Maslow's hierarchy of needs curve. These decreases in availability and increases in prices of food and oil, are resulting in these two items, forming a steadily increasing part of the budgets of the middle classes and the poor. Further because of the secondary increases in other prices impacted by the oil price increase, there is pressure upwards in consumer prices.
Particularly the middle classes who were happily going up the curve towards self actalization, with NO contemplated movements downwards, are now being violently shoved down the curve. This will have untold effects on the psyches of such sections. In less stable societies it will be a prescription for disaster, but the US will cope as it has a political safety valve in the form of elections and institutions that protect the individual.
India is facing the self same challenge, with a fractured middle class. One a part of the traditional economy: civil servants, the academe, local industries etc. This middle class has incomes that are justified by prices that this old economy can support. There is another thrusting middle class which successfully operate in a globalized context, and as it is generally service oriented, incomes here are determined by what their salaries will be in a multi-national context and standard. Thus in this globalized middle class incomes are several fold higher than the domestic middle class . Below these is a huge underclass that operates on next
to nothing. This domestic middle class and the underclass are facing the very uncertain times with the cost of living rising on a steep gradient, keeping up to the wants and price points determined by the prosperous globalized middle class. For more detailed treatment of this dilemma please read my blog:
Straws in the Wind Looming Over India
girdhargopal.sulekha.com/blog/post/2008/05/straws-in-the-wind-looming-over-india.htm
The movement of the middle class(dependent on the local economy) down the hierarchy of needs, is dangerous indeed for India's stability. The proportion of the total population out of the prosperous global economy is about 2/3rd. The government should work to re-distribute a part of the wealth by doing economic projects in the non global economy, so that the lot of the so called common man is bettered. The global sector should be made to realize that paying taxes to do this, is good for them as it is good for India.
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Thanks to globalisation and the opening out of the Indian economy the Indian middle class has discovered the purchasing power of the ruppee... The austerities of the license-permit raj era are over. Everyone wants the latest mobile phones and air conditioners and cars.... The economist and writer P Sainath has commented that the poor in India haven't ever been so poor and the rich haven't ever been so rich... In between are the middle class who follow each other in their purchasing spree... Mental poverty is on the rise... Almost everyone lives his/her life at the lowest rung of the Maslowian hierarchy of needs...
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But as I have said, if whole classes move down the hierarchy of needs curve, which means they become permanently less affluent, there is really hell to pay for society.
Rgds, Girdhar
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A very informative post GG
It is sad when the rich get richer and the poor get poorer as one can see in India today...
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Thank You Ranjini: Yes there is NO free lunch and sooner a majority realize that the better in both or in every country.
Rgds, Girdhar
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Hello Girdhar,
That was a dissertation worth reading. I think of these economic times as a time for corrections. The foreclosures, the rising prices and the recession (which is no longer looming) have been a shock to most Americans who have for the most part lived through decades of relative prosperity. This hopefully is a lesson that will be in memory for a long time and force people to think twice before buying anything, especially on a loan. The middle class in India on the other hand had just started experiencing the joys of owning luxury items and are now seeing all this suddenly seem like a short-lived dream. Rising energy costs and the limited supply of petroleum is going to change the way we live in the future in both nations.
Ranjini
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RRG: I agree with all your points: what I was saying is because of wrong headed policies, the middle class was losing out in the US and was moving down a Maslowian curve of satisfaction. Also the same thing is happeneing in India, where the non global middle class is losing out to the global middle class with possible consequences.
Rgds, Girdhar
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D_W: The statistics, that I have been working from tells me that the globalized( rich and middle class), the localized middle class amount to a third of the population each and the poor, a third. I can locate the statistics if you would like to see them. India is changing so fast that I suspect that the statistics I got is probably nearer the truth. But the argument that there are two middle classes, one connected with the global economy and one not is something that is incontrovertible. And the latter middle class is also being squeezed is also unarguable.
Rgds, Girdhar
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Dear Shri Gopalji,
I am sorry that I didnt quote my source! Gurcharan Das' India Unbound: From Independence to the Global Information Age, the 2007 revised edition is what I quoted from.
Regards
d_w
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My dear Giridhar Gopal garu,
I'm neither an economist nor a management guru but have following to say.
1.Oil prices have shot up because USA has doubled its reserves. It should release some 350 Million Tons of oil into free market.
2. It should put a limit on the gas guzzling cars.
3. It should improve Public Transport and rapid Transport systems like BARC in Frisco. The ideal should be to carry more than 75% people to & from work in public transport.
4. It is not exploiting vast reserves of oil in Gulf of Mexico and Alaskan fields in the name of environment and to keep thje prices up. The oil cartel and their lobby is very strong and influential.
5. It should give subsidies and encouragement to Hybrid cars and make the use of two wheelers compulsory in Southern states and whenever weather permits.
6. As for food it should stop subsidising the farmers and allow them to cultivate all the land. No land should be allowed to remain fallow.Similarly it should allow the production of milk to go unfettered to maintain price levels. It should also ban convrsion of corn to ethanol.
7.Big countries like Australia should immediately bring more land under the plough and increase global food production.
But the oil cartel and the farmers' lobbies are too strong and control the President irrespective of his party.
The USA instead of blaming countries like China and India should put its own house in order.
Believe you me I'm no marxist when I suggest the above measures but a pragmatist.
With best wishes,
Ramarao.
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The Point I am also making Sampath is that the non global economy(over 66% of the total) IN INDIA is also on a downward spiral with comparatively stagnant incomes and increasing prices for fuel and other essentials. This sector is being priced out and this might have consequences.
Rgds, Girdhar
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